We focus on project managers’ risk assessment to evaluate potential reasons for poor project performance. However, due to the complexity inherent to many projects, it often remains difficult to determine the reasons for even obvious cases of overly optimistic project planning. 2002), both in the public and private sector (Huff and Prybutok 2008 Shepherd and Cardon 2009 Whittaker 1999). When it comes to project management, countless examples demonstrate the human tendency to set overly optimistic plans (Buehler et al. Unfortunately, this project is no isolated incident. The Berlin-Brandenburg Airport was originally budgeted at nearly 2 billion euros (Press Release Airport Berlin-Brandenburg 2004), but the project ran into deadline troubles and the total costs will exceed twice the projected amount (Handelsblatt 2015). Risks thus seem to be insufficiently reflected in anticipations of project success which might be a reason for high failure rates of projects. When judging project success, project managers only consider the probability of a risk occurring they do not factor in the impact of said risks on project success should the risks arise. The results show that overconfidence reduces risk awareness among project managers, leading them to assess risks more optimistically and come to more positive conclusions about anticipated project success.
To observe the planning behavior of 204 project managers, we used a standardized, case-based survey. We assume that project managers’ risk awareness serves as a mediator between overconfidence and risk assessment. The present study examines how risk assessment relates to overall anticipated project success and how overconfidence on the part of project managers influences such assessments. Furthermore, project managers’ overconfidence may lead them to assess risk in a biased manner. One reason may be that potential project risks are insufficiently reflected in anticipations of project success. Projects tend to exceed planned timelines and budgets.
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